LATEST POLLING – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:   Here are latest Quinnipiac poll results, both presidential and congressional.  They tend to be in line with what I've been reading and seeing.  From The Politico: 

Sen. Rand Paul narrowly leads a tight 2016 Republican presidential field, while Hillary Clinton remains comfortably ahead among Democrats, a new poll says.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, the Kentucky senator leads the way among national Republican voters with 11 percent of the vote in a potential 2016 GOP primary. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush all tied for second with 10 percent of the vote.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 2012 vice presidential nominee Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan all pulled in 8 percent of the vote. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio received 6 percent.
Twenty percent of Republican voters remain undecided, underscoring a 2016 GOP presidential field with a lot of potential candidates but no clear favorite.

And that's the point.  The GOP contest is unformed.  These early polls prove that.  We have a long way to go to choose a nominee, and it may well be someone not even mentioned. 

Democrats, on the other hand, still have a clear front-runner in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who received 58 percent of the vote in a potential Democratic primary. Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in a distant second with 11 percent of the vote, Vice President Joe Biden received 9 percent and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo got 4 percent. Warren has said repeatedly that she isn’t running for president, though she has received considerable support from some in the liberal wing of the party.

I find that result interesting.  All the bad publicity hasn't much dented Hillary's standing, although that could change down the line.  There are reports, not confirmed, that Obama will endorse Warren, not Clinton, setting up a family feud of epic proportions.

Clinton also performed well in head-to-head matchups with many Republican candidates. In one-on-one matchups, voters preferred her to Christie, Paul, Huckabee, Bush and Ryan by anywhere from 7 to 9 percentage points. Clinton maintains a clear advantage among women, who gave her at least a 16-point edge in each of those matchups.

Actually, 7-9 points is smaller than leads registered in previous polls.

The poll also reported a divided electorate ahead of the 2014 congressional midterm elections. Forty-six percent of voters would like to see Republicans take control of the Senate, compared with 44 percent who would like Democrats to retain control. Voters reported a negative view of both parties, though they reported stronger negative feelings toward the Republican Party and congressional Republicans.

This is a key to Republican woes.  No matter how bad the Obama administration is, the Republican Party remains unpopular.  That unpopularity is digging into what should be a natural electoral advantage.

July 8, 2014